President Trump is taking a significant risk. He has set the bar too high by saying openly that he wants to free the Iranian people from the mullahs' rule. History doesn't give us many reasons to be hopeful.
The Strike
The US's and Israel's big military operation that started on February 28, 2026, is meant to change the government in Iran. The Pentagon called it "Operation Epic Fury," and Israel called it "Roaring Lion." The attack started around 1 a.m. At 1 a.m. Eastern time, the attack started with a barrage of Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from ships and bombs dropped from US Air Force and Navy jets, including those from the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group. It came after the biggest buildup of American troops in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Warships, tankers, submarines, and fighter squadrons gathered over weeks in a slow-motion prelude to war.
On March 1, Iranian state media confirmed the death of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This is a huge blow to the clerical regime. The CIA had been following Khamenei for months and gave Israel what the New York Times called "high fidelity" information about where he was. US and Israeli officials changed the time of the strike to take advantage of information that high-ranking political and military leaders would be meeting Saturday morning at a leadership compound that housed the offices of the Supreme Leader, the presidency, and the Supreme National Security Council. Around 10 a.m. Tehran time, missiles hit the compound. The Fars News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC, later confirmed the deaths of Khamenei's daughter, son-in-law, grandchild, and daughter-in-law. The state said it would mourn for 40 days.
But Khamenei wasn't the only one at the top who died. CBS News said that 40 Iranian officials died in the first strikes. Israel said that a "majority" of Iran's top military leaders were killed, including IRGC commander-in-chief Mohammad Pakpour, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, Ali Shamkhani, the Supreme Leader's representative on the Supreme Defense Council, and Majid Mousavi, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force. Bombs destroyed the Tehran Revolutionary Court. The semi-official ISNA news agency reported that attacks on military bases resulted in the deaths or injuries of thousands of IRGC members.
But killing the leaders is not enough to change the government.
The United States is betting on the people of Iran.
Since there is no organized opposition in Iran, the US seems to be relying on a mix of internal unrest and what could be called "reformist partners" within the existing power structures in Tehran. In Venezuela, the Trump administration pushed the Maduro government to change leaders, which is similar to what Washington has done. It is likely trying to do the same thing in Cuba. But in Iran, the stakes are much higher, the society is much more complicated, and the security system is much more deeply rooted. President Trump is taking a significant risk. He has set the bar very high by saying that his goal is to free the Iranian people from the mullahs' rule.
At 2:30 a.m. EST, Trump posted a video on Truth Social announcing the operation. "He said, 'The US military just started major combat operations in Iran.'" "Our goal is to protect the American people by getting rid of the Iranian regime, which is a cruel group of very hard, terrible people." He promised to destroy Iran's navy and missile industry. He told Iran's military to give up their weapons and asked Iranians to get rid of the government that has been in power since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Trump said, "It will be yours to take." "This opportunity could be your only chance for generations."
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, said the same thing: "The goal of the operation was to get rid of the terrorist regime in Iran, which poses an existential threat."
Trump is hoping that the people of Iran, especially the younger generation, will take advantage of the situation and go out in large numbers to bring down the government. This is a classic power play: "If you can't beat us, join us." But it seemed like the American president himself wasn't sure if his appeal would be heard. He told The Washington Post that his main concern was "freedom" for the Iranian people. However, he also told The Atlantic that "they should have done it sooner." They should have given it to them sooner because it was very useful and easy to do. They took too long to act.
There is a good reason for this doubt. The Iranian people have recently had a terrible experience with what happens when they go out on the streets, as they faced violent crackdowns and arrests during protests against the government.
The January Shadow
This bet is happening during the bloodiest time of state repression in Iran's modern history. On December 28, 2025, huge protests broke out all over Iran because the rial fell sharply and inflation rose quickly. The strike by shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar quickly spread to more than 100 cities, making it the biggest popular uprising since the 1979 revolution. "This criminal system has held our future hostage for 47 years," said students at Shahid Beheshti University. Neither reform nor false promises will change the situation.
The regime killed many people in response. Amnesty International called the mass killings that security forces carried out on January 8 and 9, 2026, the deadliest period of repression in decades of its research. There were snipers on the roofs of police stations and other buildings, shooting at unarmed protesters. The Iran Human Rights Organization, which is based in Norway, said that at least 3,428 protesters were killed between January 8 and 12, based on information from Iran's own Ministry of Health. Iran International used secret documents and field reports to say that more than 36,500 people died in the crackdown on January 8 and 9. If this figure is true, it would be the biggest killing of protesters in a two-day period in recorded history. The Iranian government said that 3,117 people had died. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said that at least 6,126 people had died and more than 41,800 had been arrested. The UN Special Rapporteur on Iran said that at least 5,000 people had died and that the number could reach 20,000.
Amnesty International reported that security forces used rifles and shotguns loaded with metal pellets, often aimed at heads and torsos. Reports said that security forces "finished off" injured protesters in hospitals and on the streets. One night, 150 bodies of young protesters were brought to a single hospital in Mashhad. There were too many bodies in makeshift morgues. At a forensic facility in Kahrizak, near Tehran, at least 205 body bags were found. The head of the judiciary went to a detention center and said, "If we want to do something, we need to do it quickly and on time." The prosecutor general called all of the protesters "mohareb," which means "enemies of God." This is a crime that can lead to death.
The biggest internet blackout in Iran's history cut the country off from the rest of the world. There was a curfew at night. The streets were patrolled by heavily armed security forces. Witnesses in Kurdish areas said that there were police officers at every intersection, phones were cut off, there were checkpoints inside cities, and soldiers who did not speak Farsi.
"KEEP PROTESTING, IRANIAN PATRIOTS—TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!" Trump wrote on social media on January 13, 2026. Keep the names of the people who killed and abused you. They will have to pay a lot. He said, "HELP IS ON ITS WAY." People were upset with him for not doing anything else at the time.
Trump is now asking the same people who were killed in that massacre to go back out into the streets six weeks later. Chatham House analysts said, "The protesters already feel betrayed." "Tens of thousands were shot during the protests earlier this year, and they don't want to go out again." But on March 1 in southern Iran, a crowd knocked down a statue of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who started the Islamic Republic. There were also videos of security forces shooting at people who were celebrating in the streets. The Iranian diaspora held rallies all over the world, waving the Lion and Sun flag from before the revolution. Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi told Iranians to get ready for the Republic's fall.
Order and Chaos
Who wouldn't want the Iranians to have a better life than they did under the mullahs? But history shows that order imposed by military force does not lead to order; instead, it often leads to disorder and civil war. This is especially true in the Middle East, where the goals and interests of many geopolitical players are the same and sometimes even clash. This makes things less stable because every part of the region is like a half-forgotten powder keg that could go off at any moment.
President Trump has made it clear that a big ground invasion will not lead to regime change. He told CNBC that things were "ahead of schedule" and Axios that he could "go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days." But he is okay with the idea that Americans might die; three US service members died on the first day of operations. The bigger picture seems to be based on ongoing airstrikes and the hope that Iranians will take care of the rest. The Council on Foreign Relations said it plainly: "Getting rid of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not the same as changing the government." The regime is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Air Strikes Do Not Change Regimes
Whether regime change can be achieved solely through air strikes is certainly debatable. If not impossible.
Air strikes can destroy buildings and military installations and weaken the current leadership, but there will be no change of power without the cooperation of people within Iran. People who are willing to support the goal of Trump and Israel.
A look at Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya proves this point. In Afghanistan, a Washington-led coalition toppled the Taliban in 2001. Over the next two decades, the US spent $2.3 trillion, saw over 2,000 military personnel killed and 20,000 wounded, only for the Taliban to regain power in 2021. In Iraq, the swift removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003 was followed by catastrophic de-Baathification, a deadly insurgency, full-blown sectarian civil war, and the rise of the Islamic State. President George W. Bush declared "Mission Accomplished" aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, a phrase that became one of history's colossal understatements. In Libya in 2011, NATO-backed intervention toppled Muammar Gaddafi but left behind a fractured country overrun by militias and jihadists, what Barack Obama later called the worst mistake of his presidency. According to political scientist Alexander Downes' research, the "bloody aftermath of regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq" was not an isolated incident but rather a common occurrence.
The CIA itself warned in pre-strike assessments that attacks could strengthen the hardline Revolutionary Guards, who would likely fill any power vacuum after the elimination of the regime's key leaders. The IRGC is not merely a military force; it is a vast military-industrial complex running much of the Iranian economy, commanding proxy networks from Lebanon to Yemen, and possessing the institutional depth to survive even catastrophic leadership losses. Atlantic Council analysts described the most likely outcome not as democracy but as "IRGCistan"—a military-controlled state that might offer a symbolic new Supreme Leader while keeping real power firmly in the hands of the Guards.
It is also quite possible that massive air strikes could lead many people in Iran to reluctantly rally around their own flag and support the regime. Reports from Tehran already described both celebrations and mourning, spontaneous protests, and nationalist grief, a deeply divided society being further fractured by bombardment from abroad.
At present, there is no clear picture of how long the attacks are expected to last. Trump said the "heavy and pinpoint bombing" would "continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or as long as necessary." The strikes have already stretched into a second day. But the duration matters less than the aftermath, and on the question of what comes next, silence reigns.
A Region on Fire
The expected rise has already happened. Iran launched attacks against Israel and US military bases in the region under the name "True Promise 4." Missiles and drones hit the Al Udeid air base in Qatar, the Al-Salem air base in Kuwait, the Al-Dhafra air base in the United Arab Emirates, the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, and places in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Air raid sirens went off all over the Gulf states. People in Riyadh heard explosions. There was smoke over Dubai from intercepts near the Port of Jebel Ali. Dubai International Airport, the busiest airport in the world for international travel, stopped all flights for an indefinite amount of time.
Saudi Arabia said that the Iranian attacks on Gulf states were a violation of their sovereignty. The EU told Oman to "exercise maximum restraint." Oman, which had been mediating indirect nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran, said it was "dismayed" and told the US "not to get sucked in further." At least nine protesters were killed when they stormed the US Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan. Putin, the president of Russia, called Khamenei's death "cynical murder." The Chinese ambassador to the UN called the strikes "brazen" and said it was "shocking" that they happened while talks were going on. North Korea said in a statement that it was "shameless and gangster-like behavior."
Russia asked for an emergency meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors. More than 1,400 flights in the Middle East were called off. In the north of Tehran, supermarkets were flooded with customers looking for bread and water, and the shelves were empty. There were long lines at gas stations.
The Problem
The irony is almost too much to take. Trump ran for office to stop wars like this. He said on election night in 2024, "I'm not going to start wars." In December 2025, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the Pentagon "will not be distracted by democracy-building interventionism, undefined wars, or regime change." Trump promised that the time of regime-change wars was over as recently as May 2025, when he went to the Gulf.
Trump was even more clear in the past. He said in 2016 that getting rid of governments without good plans makes "power vacuums that are filled simply by terrorists." He promised to "end the cycle of regime change." He said in 2019, "Going into the Middle East is the worst thing anyone has ever done." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took a screenshot of a series of posts and shared them on the day of the strikes. In one of them, Trump wrote in 2013, "Remember what I said before, Obama will attack Iran one day to show how tough he is." Obama got a deal on nuclear weapons and never attacked Iran. Trump has attacked Iran many times now.
The main question as lawmakers return to Washington is whether Congress, which has the constitutional power to declare war, will do anything to stop what is openly called a "major combat operation" aimed at regime change. The argument over war powers has already gotten worse.
Law around the world?
But does the fight for good and justice make breaking international law okay? Does this military action violate international law more than Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine for any Russian reason?
António Guterres, the UN Secretary General, spoke at an emergency Security Council meeting and called the events of the day "a grave threat to international peace and security." He also reminded the Council that Article Two of the UN Charter says that all member states must refrain from threatening or using force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. He said that the joint military operation had "squandered" a chance for diplomacy because it happened while Oman was mediating nuclear talks.
Norway's foreign minister said clearly, "Israel calls the attack a preventive strike, but it is not legal under international law." "Preventive attacks need a threat that is about to happen right away. " Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, said no to the military action, saying it makes "a more hostile international order." Ireland told everyone to be careful.
Israel's ambassador, Danny Danon, stated that the strikes aimed to prevent "an existential threat before it became irreversible." According to US Ambassador Mike Waltz, the goal of the operation was to destroy the ability to launch ballistic missiles and weaken the naval assets used to make international waters less stable.
People who now praise the US and Israel, which may be morally right, should know that an attack on Iran makes the world order even weaker. The Treaty of Westphalia, which ended the Thirty Years' War in 1648, is still the name of this order. The main idea behind it is that each state is in charge of its religious and social constitution and must respect that of others. The Westphalian system has been falling apart for decades, but if it were officially thrown away, there would be no agreed-upon way to handle competition between great powers, only the raw logic of force.
The Atlantic Council's lawyers said that the operation is not a typical preventive strike. There was no immediate threat that led to the operation. Instead, it appears that the plan is to use the perceived weakness of the regime to bring about major political change in a sovereign nation. Once that precedent is set, any power with the military strength to act on it can do so, potentially leading to a series of interventions in other nations under similar pretenses.
The Bet
In any case, it is a very risky bet to think that the attacks will lead to a change of government in Tehran in a few days. Trump himself admitted this when he told The Atlantic that the Iranians "should have done it sooner" while announcing the strikes. This shows that the outcome depends on decisions he can't control, made by people whose ability to work together has been systematically destroyed.
The people of Iran have been very brave in 2009, 2019, and 2022 during the Woman, Life, Freedom movement and in the terrible weeks of January 2026. They have lost tens of thousands of lives for that bravery. No American president, no matter how powerful, can say for sure if they will rise again, even if they are bombed, their internet is cut off, and the Revolutionary Guards patrol their streets.
One analyst from the Council on Foreign Relations said, "Hope isn't a strategy, and it's not clear that Trump really has a plan to change the regime." The chances of Trump getting all or even most of what he wants are very low, and the chances of him making a mistake that leads to a long, unclear war are very high. There are good reasons why past presidents didn't want to start a war with Iran. Trump has not paid attention to any of the warnings. Now he has to deal with the fallout from the biggest risk he took as president.
The dice are being rolled. Everyone is watching. And as always, the people of Iran will pay the most.